The UA Forecast: What Marketers Should Expect in Q1 2026

A new year always reshapes the user acquisition landscape — and Q1 2026 is no exception.

After the aggressive spend and competition of Q4, the first quarter brings a reset: budgets stabilize, CPIs fluctuate, and marketers refocus on efficiency.

If you’re planning your user acquisition strategy for 2026, here’s what to expect — and how to stay ahead.

1. CPIs Cool Down — But Quality Expectations Rise

Historically, Q1 sees a drop in competition after the holiday season. That means:

• Slightly lower CPIs compared to Q4 peaks

• More available inventory across UA channels

• Increased opportunity to test new audiences

  
  

But there’s a catch. While costs may stabilize, leadership teams are demanding stronger ROAS and clearer profitability signals. Scaling installs alone won’t cut it in 2026.

Marketers must prove not just growth — but efficient growth.

2. Rewarded UA Gains Budget Share

One of the biggest shifts heading into Q1 2026 is the continued rise of rewarded user acquisition (RUA).

As privacy changes limit granular targeting, rewarded UA thrives because it focuses on:

• Opt-in engagement

• High-intent installs

• Retention-first acquisition models

  
  

Platforms like Gamelight are increasingly used to stabilize acquisition costs post-holidays while maintaining quality.

For marketers under pressure to show strong early-year ROAS, rewarded UA offers predictable performance and scalable reach.

3. Retention Metrics Become the New Gatekeeper

In 2026, it’s not enough to optimize for CPI or even CPA. Q1 performance reviews will focus heavily on:

• D7 and D30 retention

• Early LTV indicators

• Cost per retained user (not just cost per install)

  
  

UA teams are being pushed closer to product teams — because acquisition and retention are now inseparable.

The message is clear: if users churn fast, the campaign fails — no matter how cheap the install was.

4. Creative Testing Speeds Up

Q1 is prime testing season.

With lower competition and slightly cheaper traffic, growth teams use early 2026 to:

• Test new creative concepts

• Validate messaging across geos

• Refresh fatigue-heavy Q4 assets

  
  

The top-performing mobile game marketing strategies treat Q1 as a structured experimentation phase — not just a continuation of last year’s playbook.

Creative performance insights gathered in Q1 often shape the entire year’s acquisition strategy.

5. Cross-Platform Growth Becomes More Visible

Cross-platform games (mobile + PC + console) are becoming standard. In Q1 2026, expect more studios to:

• Launch synchronized campaigns across mobile and desktop

• Use mobile as the entry funnel for broader ecosystems

• Measure cross-device engagement instead of isolated installs

  
  

This shift changes how mobile user acquisition platforms measure value — focusing on total player lifetime value, not just app-based performance.

6. Efficiency > Aggression

If there’s one defining theme for Q1 2026, it’s this: Efficiency beats aggression. Instead of pouring budget into scale, marketers are:

• Consolidating UA channels

• Cutting underperforming networks

• Investing in high-quality traffic sources

• Doubling down on rewarded and intent-driven acquisition

  
  

Growth isn’t slowing — it’s becoming more strategic.

7. Data Transparency Becomes Non-Negotiable

After years of opaque traffic and black-box optimization, 2026 is demanding clarity.

Marketers expect from their UA platforms:

• Clear traffic sources

• Real-time ROAS reporting

• Cohort-based performance visibility

• Transparent pricing models (CPI vs CPA clarity)

  
  

Trust is now a competitive advantage in the user acquisition ecosystem.

What This Means for Your UA Strategy

If you’re planning Q1 campaigns, the roadmap is straightforward:

• Prioritize quality over volume

• Strengthen retention tracking

• Test aggressively while costs are stable

• Diversify into rewarded UA channels

• Focus on sustainable ROAS, not vanity metrics

  
  

The marketers who adapt fastest in Q1 often outperform for the rest of the year.

Final Thoughts

Q1 2026 isn’t about rebuilding from scratch — it’s about refining what works.

The UA teams that win this quarter will:

• Optimize earlier

• Scale smarter

• Align acquisition with long-term retention

• Lean into rewarded and intent-based strategies

  
  

Because in 2026, user acquisition is no longer about getting more users.

It’s about getting the right ones.

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