The UA Forecast: What Marketers Should Expect in Q1 2026

A new year means a new user acquisition landscape — and 2026 is already off to a fast start.

After a volatile Q4 filled with holiday competition, rising CPIs, and shifting user behavior, Q1 2026 brings both challenges and opportunities for growth-minded marketers. If 2025 was about adapting to post-privacy realities, this year is about refining what works — scaling profitably, using data smarter, and finding motivated users in a crowded market.

Here’s your UA forecast for Q1 2026 — the five trends that will shape how performance marketers approach growth in the months ahead.

1. Rewarded UA Takes the Lead After the Holiday Rush

Rewarded user acquisition (RUA) is emerging as the most cost-efficient channel post-holidays. After Q4’s ad spend surge, marketers are using Q1 to re-engage players and refill the funnel with motivated, high-intent users — exactly the kind that rewarded UA delivers best.

Why it matters:

• Post-holiday fatigue makes users less responsive to traditional ads.

• Rewarded formats provide a non-intrusive, value-based engagement.

• CPIs are lower than Q4, giving marketers room to scale profitably.

  
  

In 2026, rewarded UA isn’t just a tactic — it’s becoming a core strategy for sustainable acquisition across both gaming and non-gaming apps.

2. ROAS Benchmarks Tighten, But Early Optimization Wins

The first quarter always means tighter budgets and more scrutiny on results. This year, marketers are laser-focused on early ROAS signals — predicting profitability faster and reallocating spend in real time.

In Q1 2026, expect to see:

• Increased reliance on predictive ROAS modeling (D3 → D30 projections).

• Automated budget shifting within UA platforms.

• Fewer “spray and pray” campaigns — every dollar must prove its value.

  
  

Smart marketers are moving from “test and spend” to “forecast and scale.”

3. AI-Driven Targeting Reaches Its Next Stage

Last year, AI became the buzzword of every UA conversation. This year, it’s becoming operational — not just experimental.

In Q1 2026:

• UA platforms are using AI to predict LTV and churn before install.

• Creative optimization is happening automatically via machine learning.

• Targeting is now behavior- and context-based, not demographic-driven.

  
  

AI is no longer a tool — it’s the invisible co-pilot optimizing every stage of acquisition.

4. Creative Testing Gets Even More Granular

Marketers used to test ad creatives weekly. Now, they test hourly. In Q1 2026, creative optimization is about speed, iteration, and precision.

Expect leading teams to:

• Use AI tools to auto-generate and score creatives by predicted CTR.

• Test visual and copy variations simultaneously (multivariate testing).

• Analyze creative performance by audience segment, not just ad set.

  
  

Winning teams understand that in the post-ATT era, creative is the new targeting — and rewarded formats give users a reason to engage instead of scroll past.

5. Cross-Platform Campaigns Become the Growth Edge

Mobile-first is no longer enough. Q1 2026 will accelerate the shift toward cross-platform user acquisition — targeting users who interact across devices, channels, and ecosystems.

Why this matters:

• Players are moving fluidly between mobile, web, and console experiences.

• Unified user journeys drive higher retention and lifetime value.

• Cross-platform UA enables seamless messaging and offer continuity.

  
  

Studios and brands that treat their audiences as cross-platform ecosystems — not isolated installs — will scale faster and retain longer.

6. Efficiency Is the New Growth Metric

Gone are the days when growth meant spending more. In Q1 2026, the focus is on efficient scaling — optimizing every step of the funnel for profitability.

That means:

• Smarter bidding strategies instead of higher budgets.

• Fewer networks, more quality.

• Rewarded UA and direct traffic over paid social dependence.

  
  

Marketers are learning that efficiency and scale aren’t opposites — they’re two sides of modern UA success.

Final Thoughts

The first quarter of 2026 is setting the tone for the year ahead: smarter, leaner, and more predictive.

Marketers who combine automation with insight — and scale through rewarded, intent-driven channels — will outperform those chasing volume alone.

The future of UA isn’t about spending more; it’s about understanding better, reacting faster, and acquiring users who actually stay.

And with rewarded UA platforms like Gamelight, doing all three has never been easier.

Are you ready to revolutionize your game's outreach? 

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